On the eve of Nov 8th, 2016, the Prime Minister addressed the nation and since then the higher denomination notes was not a legal tender any more. This resulted in long queues outside banks and ATMs for exchanging and withdrawing new currency. Here started a brand new and unique political drama inside and outside Parliament. Nobody was sure what was the real motive and how it was going to be achieved but the poor people were happy even after standing in queue that the rich will have to suffer and accumulated wealth would come out. The daily withdrawal was limited to Rs 2000.
On the other hand, Congress, the left and all the other so called secular parties started questioning the government about the implementation. Dr Manmohan Singh called this move an organised loot and all the opposition parties were questioning government on its readiness for this step because people were suffering and dying in the queues. Many families were struggling because of marriages and other functions in their home. Patients and their families in hospital were in pathetic condition. But this was not the mood of entire India because the assembly polls result indicated something else. The TMC and AAP were applying immense pressure on the government to rollback this decision but the man with 56 inches chest had already analyzed the mood of the masses. After the submission of old notes, the RBI started the counting which was told would take few months. In the meantime, BJP managed to get its CMs in UP, Uttrakhand, Goa and Manipur.
The experts all over the country were describing the pros and the cons of this big move. Till now it was clear that common man is happy with this step but the real motive was still unknown. Dr Subramaniyam Swamy kept on saying that the motive was correct but the implementation was wrong. Finally after eight months of counting and scanning, RBI gave its report which was very much disappointing to hear at the first instance. 98.6% of Rs 1000 notes have come back to the bank. Then where is the black money? This is the time the Opposition was waiting for since long. From P Chidambram to other major opposition leaders began to slam RBI and the government for this flop move. Mamta Banerjee has moved one step ahead and called this as the biggest scam till now. Will this impact Modi’s decision making ability and reduce his fan following? This will be known in the upcoming assembly and general election 2019.
Before Modi, RBI advised Mrs Indira Gandhi to implement this idea, but she refused it because according to her this would cost her in election. Even Modi was not 100% sure but he dared to take this risk. The story is not over here. The money which has been deposited in bank are not converted to white and this was the thing government was not able to explain to people. IT department is still analyzing the suspected accounts and 2 million account holders have got notice from IT department for the uneven deposit in their account post 8th of November. 5.6 million new people started to file their IT return which itself is a big thing, The money which was kept in lockers or under the bed and pillows are now in banks which has increased the loan giving power of banks and will also help in reducing the interest rates. The fake notes of the terrorists, Maoists were destroyed the impact of which can be seen.
Maybe the tangible result of demonetization is not visible at present but I will still say it can be a game changer in coming years. The money which is in bank is linked to someone’s account and it will be earning taxes for government every year which was till now buried in the lockers. It will take some time for the agencies to figure it out the black money in the total deposited money. It was a known fact that this move would impact the GDP initially but this is a temporary transition phase and slowly and steady it will grow exponentially. Over the years people will remember this move as the backbone of clean and big economy of India. Sometimes direction is so much more important than speed. The rich people have managed to deposit their amount in bank with the help of some poor people in their contact. But they should not think now that the game is over, maybe the game has just begun.
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